Tuesday, January 20, 2009

Interesting Post by an Old Friend: Worst President Ever

An old friend of mine, Eric Ewing, recently posted this note on Facebook. I can't say that I agree completely with him, but his insight and willingness to cite facts makes for an interesting read.

The worst president ever? Well maybe since James Buchanan.

Does anyone remember the slogan at the 2000 Republican National convention? Reformer with Results? Does that ring a bell to anyone?

Let us see the results of his last eight years.

1) No child left behind.

The act was a well conceived but poorly executed plan, which has made certain that children will never learn anything in school. American students still perform more poorly on average than most in the rest of the industrialized world. Oh, but don't worry, the smart ones have to get held back too since this thing was enacted.

2) The Afghan War

No one has successfully subjugated Afghanistan since Alexander the Great (except maybe the Mongols), and he was only able to do it because in those days, an acceptable way to end a war was to marry into the family of your rival. If only things were so simple these days. Democracies require far too many marriages to have the electoral effect necessary to change policy between feuding nations. Given that context, it would be arrogant to assume we should do any better than the Persians, the Mughals, the Mongols, the British, and the countless other forces witch have wasted their time on this wretched swath of land. Therefore, it is no surprise to me that as many before have had early success preceding failure, we now struggle to hold our previous gains. It seems that President Bush has been content to watch the situation fester over the last seven years. Some explain our failure to close the deal in Afghanistan with the necessity to deal with Iraq. It is a stupid argument. As Hitler would have had better results if he had finished off the UK before invading the USSR, we may have done better without a two front war. President Bush's haste to invade Iraq matches the stupidity of Hitler's decision to invade Russia.

3) Gulf War II

Do I need to even mention this? It should suffice to say that early failure has barely been mitigated in the later years of this war. Essentially we are where we should have been four years ago. Early declaration of victory followed by obstinate denial about a degrading situation destroyed possibilities of keeping the country stable. Secretary Rumsfeld refused to adapt to changing situations, and after all this wasted time, we have worn out our welcome. That time and a few trillion dollars we had to help are lost. The Iraqis rightly want us gone, and now we must leave without confidence that our meager accomplishments as of late may bear fruit in Iraq.

4) Hurricane Ivan and Katrina

People forget that a year before Katrina hit, Hurricane Ivan devastated Pensacola FL, Mobile AL, and other large towns along the Gulf Coast. While it is true that the majority of the responsibility for what happened to New Orleans lies with her idiot mayor and Louisiana's incompetent governor, it must be noted that the President had ample warning to streamline FEMA into a useful organization. He did not heed any warnings presented by this earlier disaster. In fact, when I left Pensacola four years after Hurricane Ivan, there were still plenty of places that looked like a bad day in Bosnia, and there were still a lot of FEMA trailers and people living in squalor.

5) Immigration reform

There was no immigration reform, and the President failed to lead his retarded party's members to compromise their illogical policy of xenophobia, which was founded on fear and stupidity of the voting populace. Being that the President had no leadership skills at all, he was unable to get his own immigration reform passed.

6) The Financial Crisis

President Bush was presented with an unprecedented opportunity. He had a real chance to set precedent. He could have showed everyone that it is not the responsibility of the Federal government to pick up the slack of private citizens. However, he showed no leadership. He allowed the bailout of AIG unnecessarily. The final nail in his legacy's coffin was his failure to veto the Detroit bailout. He allowed Congress to postpone our problems for the next generation. I could spout out all the economic theory that supports this assertion, but the bottom line is this. The bad debt that out government bought in these bailouts will have to be purged eventually, another financial crisis of equal or greater magnitude is in the mail already.

What I've outlined here are only the highlights. There are plenty more reasons to be irritated about George W. Bush's presidency, global warming, torture, etc. In 2000, I was excited to vote in my first election, but the stupid Republican televangelists thought it made the most sense to have an inexperienced governor with no leadership experience lead the US. Needless to say my excitement vanished, and subsequently, I have been unimpressed with the results. I thought maybe we learned a lesson, but as usual I have overestimated the intelligence of the voting populace. John McCain was unable to win the votes of as many stupid people as Barack Obama. They decided to replace the inexperienced governor with an inexperienced Senator with no leadership experience, and after he fucks up, they will probably pick an inexperienced Congressman.

In a way, we deserve the last eight years. We deserve the economic crisis, the wars, the patriot act and all the other disasters of this last eight years. We got lucky for a while with the Clinton years. We picked a draft dodger over a true leader, and it worked out for a bit, but our mistake showed on Sept 11 when it became apparent President Clinton and his successor were sleeping at the wheel. They just decided to ignore that the World Trade Center had already been targeted. We've picked shitty leaders for a long time now but are undaunted by shitty results. In that regard, our President's obstinacy mirrors our own. We're going for 20 straight years of incapable Presidents. Maybe we'll get lucky again with Obama, but I'm not counting on it. I bet we'll deserve what we get.

In our history, there have been only 11 presidents who have not served in the armed forces. Six of those were the presidents that lead the country into the Great Depression. What does it say about our country when we choose the flashy and the trendy over the proven and the austere? What does it say to me when our president elect holds the most opulent, most expensive (by over 4 fold) inauguration party in history during a period of financial crisis and overwhelming deficits? What does it say to me when the captains of industry take private jets to Washington to ask for a bailout, and then get it? What does it say about our country when the people who really care about our country enough to risk their lives for it are ignored? What is says to me is that America no longer deserves men like Bob Dole, and John McCain. It says to me that we are heading to the same place (a world war and a depression) where we were when the voters last chose to ignore such people. It tells me that no one actually gives a shit about myself and the men and women who serve with me. They feign respect and admiration because they're just glad it isn't they who are in our shoes. They're happy someone else pulls their weight. They feign respect just as GW Bush and Obama feigned respect for John McCain, a better man than they.

When Comrade Obama takes office tomorrow, much of the hope I had for this country when I took my first oath of office in June of 2001 will be dead. Instead I will only have the resignation that we are most likely beyond our zenith, and if we hold or lumber forward, it will be by luck and not by the merits of our people. All you who voted for GW and/or Obama should be ashamed of yourselves.

Back in the Market

I had been scared of the market for a while, specifically selling naked options. They had blown up in my face too many times with the realized volatility that we have seen. Recently I have converted everything to a covered call write program on a basked of indexes through etf's.

After a while I couldn't resist playing the options market. I had watched crude fall from ~$140 per barrel down to the mid 30's. I am not well versed in the supply and demand of oil, but it can't go to zero. Plus, with the implied volatility in the market right now, there is a huge premium for options.

I couldn't get involved in the crude futures because of the size (plus I don't want to screw up and have to take delivery of 1,000 barrels of oil somewhere in Texas), so I am using United States Oil, USO, which tracks the price. About two weeks ago I sold 2 Jan 31 put options for $0.65. Unfortunately, they expired in the money. Because of the vol, though, on expiration, I was able to sell deep in the money calls (Jan 25 C) for $5.90, bringing my cost per share to $24.45. Oil may continue to sink lower, but unless USO goes much lower than $20, I will be able to roll down again.

Friday, January 16, 2009

People I Never Found Funny

  • Steve Martin
  • Wanda Sykes
  • Dave Letterman
  • Ice Cube You went from "Boyz in the Hood" to "Are We There Yet," come on!
  • Ray Romano
  • Sarah Silverman

Take it Easy, Mike

This morning I was watching the news and the big subject was, naturally, the crash landing of the US Airways flight into the Hudson. I normally like Mike Bloomberg; he seems intelligent and rational even when it is not immediately advantageous politically. For some reason, however, he decided to speak Spanish in the press conference this morning.

I like how he starts out by saying, "..to help wrap up for those who speak Spanish easier to understand." What follows is him butchering the accent. I am not a fluent speaker, but I know a gringo accent when I see one. He has a worse accent than most English people, and they sound terrible when they speak Spanish. It is also a pointless exercise as virtually any Spanish language channel will have translators who can translate everything that he has said virtually instantaneously. How much does he hope to get across in the 40 seconds that he speaks Spanish? Is his Spanish that good that he can summarize an entire conference in just 40 seconds? Or have I just watched a half an hour worth of something that could be summarized in 40 seconds.

Friday, November 7, 2008

Karaoke

Last night my friend was DJ'ing at a bar, and we decided to follow it up with the only logical thing to do at 2 am on a Thursday: karaoke. Initially, songs were pretty quite and generic - U2, Red Hot Chili Peppers etc. This just wasn't doing it for me, so I decided to take it up a notch and put on Changes by 2Pac. As I drunkenly belted out the lyrics, I realized that the song had the n-word numerous times. I figured it would be worse to change the lyrics to 2Pacs masterpiece than to say the word, so I went for it. After all, 2Pac must have forseen this scenario when he was writing his music: drunken white kids singing his songs at karaoke. I hope I didn't offend anybody. The women in our group were probably more disgusted as I took on Ja Rule's "Always on Time."

Bitch, you know better, either M-O-B
Money Over Bitches, Murder I.N.C
I got two or three hoes for every V
And I keep 'em drugged up off that ecstasy

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Thursday, October 16, 2008

On Language

When I watched the VP debate, Palin's idiocy was overwhelming. Her use of the word 'attribute' in its verb form stuck out to me. I was so confused by it that I had to look up the definition on dictionary.com to make sure that I actually knew what it meant. Sure enough, I did, and she is just as dumb as I thought she was.

Definition from dictionary.com:

Attribute: to regard as resulting from a specified cause; consider as caused by something indicated (usually fol. by to): She attributed his bad temper to ill health.

Palin's Uses:

#1: "I'm not one to attribute every man -- activity of man to the changes in the climate."
Climate changes are attributed to man, not the other way around.

#2: "And it is my executive experience that is partly to be attributed to my pick as V.P. with McCain, not only as a governor, but earlier on as a mayor, as an oil and gas regulator, as a business owner."
Her being picked is attributed to her experience, not the other way around.

Of course she could mean that climate change causes the activity of man and that her being picked has given her executive experience. I have been looking through the internet for other bloggers to pick up on this, but nobody has. This worries me that maybe I am the one who somehow does not understand the meaning of the word.

Monday, October 13, 2008

Saw Religulous

On Saturday night I went to Bill Maher's new movie Religulous; I was sorely disappointed. This movie could have been great had it dealt with the use of religion in the United States (and in the world) in politics and culture. Bill Maher could have pointed out how all presidential candidates, Obama included, feel it necessary to constantly point out that they are religious. He could have talked about the lack of separation between church and state, creationism being taught in school, or the catholic church's systematic concealing of priests molesting children.

Instead Maher decided to attack the notion of the existence of a god. He did this mostly by debating with people that were less intelligent and prepared than he was and pointing out ridiculous parts about the bible and faith. The only halfway intelligent people that he talked (except for one scientist) already largely agreed with him. It reminded me of an asshole with slicked back hair trying to convince a mentally challenged child that santa clause was not real.

Tuesday, October 7, 2008

Calling a Bottom

Yesterday I made a statement heard by just one other person that we were seeing the bottom for the S&P. Though valuations remain high (The S&P has a trailing P/E of 20), yesterdays strong surge in the second half of the day gave me hope that we were seeing the end of some of the mayhem. Yesterday the low on the S&P was 1008. I believe that to be the lowest that we will see going forward.

Friday, September 12, 2008

Got a Bit Nervous on my XLF Puts

About two weeks I go I wrote about selling some XLF Puts. This morning I started getting really nervous about the state of the economy in general. Maybe I have been reading too much of Barry over at The Big Picture, but the more I think about it I might want to be learning basic skills for survival in a post-apocalyptic world. What these skills might be, I have no idea. JUST JOKING.

In all seriousness, I have been getting worried about the state of the US economy (finally). I sold a call this morning, and then I went to look at my short XLF puts. On August 23rd I had done the following:

Sell 1 September XLF 21 put at $1.12
Sell 1 September XLF 20 put at $0.72

Today I bought the 21 put back at $0.87. I will leave the 20 put out there, but I might cover it if I start to get nervous again.

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You Don't See This Everyday

The S&P opened today, plunged 15 points, and rebounded to about flat. The September 1300 calls, 60 points out of the money, expiring in 1 week, are up $1.

I could understand puts going through the roof. Lehman is screwed, Fannie and Freddie are done, people like this Swedish guy are calling for a depression. Not a recession, but a DEPRESSION. 1929 style. But calls?

I sold one September ES Mini 1300 call at $3.50. It is now bid at $3.60.

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Obama's Speech Patterns

Bill Clinton had one. George Bush had a fake one. Stephen Colbert got rid of his. Now Obama seems to be trying to acquire a southern accent. Maybe he thinks that the northeast and California is so deeply in his corner that he need not try to relate to them through familiar patterns of speech. Perhaps the majority of this country is so stupid that they can't vote for some fast talking black man from up north. Whatever the reason, it infuriates me to hear Obama flatten out his a's. Listen to Obama's lipstick speech as he talks about policAH. He sounds like fucking Cartman.

Here is a good video of Obama speaking clearly and normally with what I would expect would be the normal pattern of speech of a Harvard educated guy. Listen to how he says "policy."

Now here he is talking about policah.

Here is Cartman

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