Intent To Distribute

An Invisible Hand to Slap the TSA

noreply@blogger.com (H) — Tue, 26 Jan 2010 20:05:00 +0000

Anybody who has ever flown or willfully engaged themselves in an argument with a TSA officer over why dress from a more widely recognized religion need not be removed while that of an unknown (made up) belief system must be put through the metal detector can attest to the stupidity of those working the security checkpoints at our airports. Not only are the TSA largely of menial intelligence (what do you expect for $25,00 a year), but the policies are reactionary rather than proactive - think removing your shoes AFTER the shoe bomber has made an attempted strike. Next time I fly I would like to separate my 1 liter bottle of water between twelve 3 oz bottles just to show the idiocy of the policies.

What is the solution? Go private. Impose on the airlines a mandatory payment of $5 million for every passenger killed on a flight as the result of a terrorist attack, then let them handle the security of every passenger getting on their plane. The payment would take care of the incentive, and competition among airlines for service would ensure that security lines were run efficiently.

Of course airlines would likely outsource the security to specialized firms, but this would increase efficiency as well. Instead of the government watching over these firms, a capitalist business with an eye on the bottom line and competition would be. Further, we should force the airlines not only to assume the risk of $5M per person, but also be insured for that risk. That way the insurers would be tasked with making sure that the security procedures were adequate while the airline would be pushing for an easy experience in the security line to keep up with competition.

For all you socialists out there, this would likely INCREASE the pay of workers - those performing the security procedure - as there would be a demand for competent employees rather than government lackeys. For those who ring their hands and say that you can't put a price on human life, you may be right. However, policies put an implicit price on human life every day. If we slowed the speed limit to 5mph, we would have less traffic deaths, but the economic consequences of decreased mobility would be catastrophic. $5M is largely an arbitrary number to get the airlines' attention. It should be high enough that they (or their insurers) would never want to incur the cost, yet low enough that insurance premiums would not be too high. Who would likely do a better job with the security screening? An airline security team with an insurance company that is worried about losing hundreds of millions of dollars if it fails, or a government branch full of underpaid employees?

Why I Like UNG

noreply@blogger.com (H) — Mon, 25 Jan 2010 17:21:00 +0000

Over the past two years, UNG would have been a terrible investment. Even as the stock market has retraced some of its losses, UNG stands at 15% of its peak.

However, even with the uptick of implied vol in the equity markets, the VIX is still at around 25. This doesn't compare with the hefty 45% implied vol in the UNG options. Here is the trade:

Sell February UNG 10 Puts at $0.33. With UNG at $10.32, it will have to fall 6% before you start losing money. If, on expiration, UNG has fallen, the implied vol will still let you either roll down those puts at a credit or let you sell calls against the stock. Here are some scenarios for the March options at February option expiration at 45% implied vol:

Even with a big selloff, you can still sell 10 calls against it and take in a premium of >1% a month. This also discounts the fact that negative moves are generally negatively correlated with implied volatility, so the premium would likely be more.

If it were to move down, I would roll down as much as I could while still being at a credit. For example, if UNG was at $9.50 and the puts were worth $0.50, I would buy back 2 of the Feb 10's and sell 1 of the March 10's and 1 of the March 9's at a credit of -2*$0.50 + $0.77 + $0.25 = $0.04.

The Situation

noreply@blogger.com (H) — Sun, 24 Jan 2010 19:40:00 +0000

Sometimes I wish Wolf Blitzer would just get it over with and invite the Situation into the Situation Room. I wonder if he will bring his brother, Circumstance.

Cheap Vol.

noreply@blogger.com (H) — Wed, 20 Jan 2010 19:43:00 +0000

After touching a dizzying height of 80, the VIX has steadily declined the last 15 months. All this despite 10% unemployment and a great deal of uncertainty as to how this scenario will play out. The VIX measures the annual implied volatility derived from options prices on the S&P 500. If you believe the VIX will rise, you can buy a VIX future. These, however, rarely trade at par. You could also buy a variance swap, but this gives you exposure to future realized volatility as well as implied volatility. With the stock market looking a bit heady, I think that the best trade is to go long at the money long dated SPY options and short short dated SPY options at the a slightly lower strike. That is:

Buy SPY Sep 113 Puts at $7.90
Sell SPY Feb 111 Puts at $1.32

Looking at the Greeks, for the put option you are long:
7.7 Theoretical Price
-0.46 Delta
0.02 Gamma
0.38 Vega
-0.01 Theta

For the put option you are short:
-0.35 Delta
0.07 Gamma
0.01 Gamma 1%
0.11 Vega
-0.04 Theta

You are net short the market (good thing), long gamma (good, but this can change), long vega (the original goal), and the theta shows that you are capturing time decay on these options.

As the short dated option expires, I would sell a March option a couple of points out of the money (but never higher than the strike of the long dated options). If the option is set to expire in the money, I would try to roll down at a credit. In all, these types of trades could prove to be profitable with an uptick in implied volatility or with a market drop. There is also a limited downside to this, as your total loss is capped at $7.90 - $1.32 = $6.58. This does not even take into account that $1 - $1.50 that you can take in every month until expiration.

Interesting Post by an Old Friend: Worst President Ever

noreply@blogger.com (H) — Tue, 20 Jan 2009 18:02:00 +0000

An old friend of mine, Eric Ewing, recently posted this note on Facebook. I can't say that I agree completely with him, but his insight and willingness to cite facts makes for an interesting read.

The worst president ever? Well maybe since James Buchanan.

Does anyone remember the slogan at the 2000 Republican National convention? Reformer with Results? Does that ring a bell to anyone?

Let us see the results of his last eight years.

1) No child left behind.

The act was a well conceived but poorly executed plan, which has made certain that children will never learn anything in school. American students still perform more poorly on average than most in the rest of the industrialized world. Oh, but don't worry, the smart ones have to get held back too since this thing was enacted.

2) The Afghan War

No one has successfully subjugated Afghanistan since Alexander the Great (except maybe the Mongols), and he was only able to do it because in those days, an acceptable way to end a war was to marry into the family of your rival. If only things were so simple these days. Democracies require far too many marriages to have the electoral effect necessary to change policy between feuding nations. Given that context, it would be arrogant to assume we should do any better than the Persians, the Mughals, the Mongols, the British, and the countless other forces witch have wasted their time on this wretched swath of land. Therefore, it is no surprise to me that as many before have had early success preceding failure, we now struggle to hold our previous gains. It seems that President Bush has been content to watch the situation fester over the last seven years. Some explain our failure to close the deal in Afghanistan with the necessity to deal with Iraq. It is a stupid argument. As Hitler would have had better results if he had finished off the UK before invading the USSR, we may have done better without a two front war. President Bush's haste to invade Iraq matches the stupidity of Hitler's decision to invade Russia.

3) Gulf War II

Do I need to even mention this? It should suffice to say that early failure has barely been mitigated in the later years of this war. Essentially we are where we should have been four years ago. Early declaration of victory followed by obstinate denial about a degrading situation destroyed possibilities of keeping the country stable. Secretary Rumsfeld refused to adapt to changing situations, and after all this wasted time, we have worn out our welcome. That time and a few trillion dollars we had to help are lost. The Iraqis rightly want us gone, and now we must leave without confidence that our meager accomplishments as of late may bear fruit in Iraq.

4) Hurricane Ivan and Katrina

People forget that a year before Katrina hit, Hurricane Ivan devastated Pensacola FL, Mobile AL, and other large towns along the Gulf Coast. While it is true that the majority of the responsibility for what happened to New Orleans lies with her idiot mayor and Louisiana's incompetent governor, it must be noted that the President had ample warning to streamline FEMA into a useful organization. He did not heed any warnings presented by this earlier disaster. In fact, when I left Pensacola four years after Hurricane Ivan, there were still plenty of places that looked like a bad day in Bosnia, and there were still a lot of FEMA trailers and people living in squalor.

5) Immigration reform

There was no immigration reform, and the President failed to lead his retarded party's members to compromise their illogical policy of xenophobia, which was founded on fear and stupidity of the voting populace. Being that the President had no leadership skills at all, he was unable to get his own immigration reform passed.

6) The Financial Crisis

President Bush was presented with an unprecedented opportunity. He had a real chance to set precedent. He could have showed everyone that it is not the responsibility of the Federal government to pick up the slack of private citizens. However, he showed no leadership. He allowed the bailout of AIG unnecessarily. The final nail in his legacy's coffin was his failure to veto the Detroit bailout. He allowed Congress to postpone our problems for the next generation. I could spout out all the economic theory that supports this assertion, but the bottom line is this. The bad debt that out government bought in these bailouts will have to be purged eventually, another financial crisis of equal or greater magnitude is in the mail already.

What I've outlined here are only the highlights. There are plenty more reasons to be irritated about George W. Bush's presidency, global warming, torture, etc. In 2000, I was excited to vote in my first election, but the stupid Republican televangelists thought it made the most sense to have an inexperienced governor with no leadership experience lead the US. Needless to say my excitement vanished, and subsequently, I have been unimpressed with the results. I thought maybe we learned a lesson, but as usual I have overestimated the intelligence of the voting populace. John McCain was unable to win the votes of as many stupid people as Barack Obama. They decided to replace the inexperienced governor with an inexperienced Senator with no leadership experience, and after he fucks up, they will probably pick an inexperienced Congressman.

In a way, we deserve the last eight years. We deserve the economic crisis, the wars, the patriot act and all the other disasters of this last eight years. We got lucky for a while with the Clinton years. We picked a draft dodger over a true leader, and it worked out for a bit, but our mistake showed on Sept 11 when it became apparent President Clinton and his successor were sleeping at the wheel. They just decided to ignore that the World Trade Center had already been targeted. We've picked shitty leaders for a long time now but are undaunted by shitty results. In that regard, our President's obstinacy mirrors our own. We're going for 20 straight years of incapable Presidents. Maybe we'll get lucky again with Obama, but I'm not counting on it. I bet we'll deserve what we get.

In our history, there have been only 11 presidents who have not served in the armed forces. Six of those were the presidents that lead the country into the Great Depression. What does it say about our country when we choose the flashy and the trendy over the proven and the austere? What does it say to me when our president elect holds the most opulent, most expensive (by over 4 fold) inauguration party in history during a period of financial crisis and overwhelming deficits? What does it say to me when the captains of industry take private jets to Washington to ask for a bailout, and then get it? What does it say about our country when the people who really care about our country enough to risk their lives for it are ignored? What is says to me is that America no longer deserves men like Bob Dole, and John McCain. It says to me that we are heading to the same place (a world war and a depression) where we were when the voters last chose to ignore such people. It tells me that no one actually gives a shit about myself and the men and women who serve with me. They feign respect and admiration because they're just glad it isn't they who are in our shoes. They're happy someone else pulls their weight. They feign respect just as GW Bush and Obama feigned respect for John McCain, a better man than they.

When Comrade Obama takes office tomorrow, much of the hope I had for this country when I took my first oath of office in June of 2001 will be dead. Instead I will only have the resignation that we are most likely beyond our zenith, and if we hold or lumber forward, it will be by luck and not by the merits of our people. All you who voted for GW and/or Obama should be ashamed of yourselves.

Back in the Market

noreply@blogger.com (H) — Tue, 20 Jan 2009 15:48:00 +0000

I had been scared of the market for a while, specifically selling naked options. They had blown up in my face too many times with the realized volatility that we have seen. Recently I have converted everything to a covered call write program on a basked of indexes through etf's.

After a while I couldn't resist playing the options market. I had watched crude fall from ~$140 per barrel down to the mid 30's. I am not well versed in the supply and demand of oil, but it can't go to zero. Plus, with the implied volatility in the market right now, there is a huge premium for options.

I couldn't get involved in the crude futures because of the size (plus I don't want to screw up and have to take delivery of 1,000 barrels of oil somewhere in Texas), so I am using United States Oil, USO, which tracks the price. About two weeks ago I sold 2 Jan 31 put options for $0.65. Unfortunately, they expired in the money. Because of the vol, though, on expiration, I was able to sell deep in the money calls (Jan 25 C) for $5.90, bringing my cost per share to $24.45. Oil may continue to sink lower, but unless USO goes much lower than $20, I will be able to roll down again.

People I Never Found Funny

noreply@blogger.com (H) — Sat, 17 Jan 2009 03:09:00 +0000

Steve Martin
Wanda Sykes
Dave Letterman
Ice Cube You went from "Boyz in the Hood" to "Are We There Yet," come on!
Ray Romano
Sarah Silverman

Take it Easy, Mike

noreply@blogger.com (H) — Sat, 17 Jan 2009 02:59:00 +0000

This morning I was watching the news and the big subject was, naturally, the crash landing of the US Airways flight into the Hudson. I normally like Mike Bloomberg; he seems intelligent and rational even when it is not immediately advantageous politically. For some reason, however, he decided to speak Spanish in the press conference this morning.

I like how he starts out by saying, "..to help wrap up for those who speak Spanish easier to understand." What follows is him butchering the accent. I am not a fluent speaker, but I know a gringo accent when I see one. He has a worse accent than most English people, and they sound terrible when they speak Spanish. It is also a pointless exercise as virtually any Spanish language channel will have translators who can translate everything that he has said virtually instantaneously. How much does he hope to get across in the 40 seconds that he speaks Spanish? Is his Spanish that good that he can summarize an entire conference in just 40 seconds? Or have I just watched a half an hour worth of something that could be summarized in 40 seconds.

Karaoke

noreply@blogger.com (H) — Fri, 07 Nov 2008 16:44:00 +0000

Last night my friend was DJ'ing at a bar, and we decided to follow it up with the only logical thing to do at 2 am on a Thursday: karaoke. Initially, songs were pretty quite and generic - U2, Red Hot Chili Peppers etc. This just wasn't doing it for me, so I decided to take it up a notch and put on Changes by 2Pac. As I drunkenly belted out the lyrics, I realized that the song had the n-word numerous times. I figured it would be worse to change the lyrics to 2Pacs masterpiece than to say the word, so I went for it. After all, 2Pac must have forseen this scenario when he was writing his music: drunken white kids singing his songs at karaoke. I hope I didn't offend anybody. The women in our group were probably more disgusted as I took on Ja Rule's "Always on Time."

Bitch, you know better, either M-O-B
Money Over Bitches, Murder I.N.C
I got two or three hoes for every V
And I keep 'em drugged up off that ecstasy

On Language

noreply@blogger.com (H) — Thu, 16 Oct 2008 17:50:00 +0000

When I watched the VP debate, Palin's idiocy was overwhelming. Her use of the word 'attribute' in its verb form stuck out to me. I was so confused by it that I had to look up the definition on dictionary.com to make sure that I actually knew what it meant. Sure enough, I did, and she is just as dumb as I thought she was.

Definition from dictionary.com:

Attribute: to regard as resulting from a specified cause; consider as caused by something indicated (usually fol. by to): She attributed his bad temper to ill health.

Palin's Uses:

#1: "I'm not one to attribute every man -- activity of man to the changes in the climate."
Climate changes are attributed to man, not the other way around.

#2: "And it is my executive experience that is partly to be attributed to my pick as V.P. with McCain, not only as a governor, but earlier on as a mayor, as an oil and gas regulator, as a business owner."
Her being picked is attributed to her experience, not the other way around.

Of course she could mean that climate change causes the activity of man and that her being picked has given her executive experience. I have been looking through the internet for other bloggers to pick up on this, but nobody has. This worries me that maybe I am the one who somehow does not understand the meaning of the word.

Saw Religulous

noreply@blogger.com (H) — Mon, 13 Oct 2008 17:10:00 +0000

On Saturday night I went to Bill Maher's new movie Religulous; I was sorely disappointed. This movie could have been great had it dealt with the use of religion in the United States (and in the world) in politics and culture. Bill Maher could have pointed out how all presidential candidates, Obama included, feel it necessary to constantly point out that they are religious. He could have talked about the lack of separation between church and state, creationism being taught in school, or the catholic church's systematic concealing of priests molesting children.

Instead Maher decided to attack the notion of the existence of a god. He did this mostly by debating with people that were less intelligent and prepared than he was and pointing out ridiculous parts about the bible and faith. The only halfway intelligent people that he talked (except for one scientist) already largely agreed with him. It reminded me of an asshole with slicked back hair trying to convince a mentally challenged child that santa clause was not real.

Calling a Bottom

noreply@blogger.com (H) — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 16:20:00 +0000

Yesterday I made a statement heard by just one other person that we were seeing the bottom for the S&P. Though valuations remain high (The S&P has a trailing P/E of 20), yesterdays strong surge in the second half of the day gave me hope that we were seeing the end of some of the mayhem. Yesterday the low on the S&P was 1008. I believe that to be the lowest that we will see going forward.

Got a Bit Nervous on my XLF Puts

noreply@blogger.com (H) — Fri, 12 Sep 2008 16:40:00 +0000

About two weeks I go I wrote about selling some XLF Puts. This morning I started getting really nervous about the state of the economy in general. Maybe I have been reading too much of Barry over at The Big Picture, but the more I think about it I might want to be learning basic skills for survival in a post-apocalyptic world. What these skills might be, I have no idea. JUST JOKING.

In all seriousness, I have been getting worried about the state of the US economy (finally). I sold a call this morning, and then I went to look at my short XLF puts. On August 23rd I had done the following:

Sell 1 September XLF 21 put at $1.12
Sell 1 September XLF 20 put at $0.72

Today I bought the 21 put back at $0.87. I will leave the 20 put out there, but I might cover it if I start to get nervous again.

You Don't See This Everyday

noreply@blogger.com (H) — Fri, 12 Sep 2008 16:02:00 +0000

The S&P opened today, plunged 15 points, and rebounded to about flat. The September 1300 calls, 60 points out of the money, expiring in 1 week, are up $1.

I could understand puts going through the roof. Lehman is screwed, Fannie and Freddie are done, people like this Swedish guy are calling for a depression. Not a recession, but a DEPRESSION. 1929 style. But calls?

I sold one September ES Mini 1300 call at $3.50. It is now bid at $3.60.

Obama's Speech Patterns

noreply@blogger.com (H) — Fri, 12 Sep 2008 13:33:00 +0000

Bill Clinton had one. George Bush had a fake one. Stephen Colbert got rid of his. Now Obama seems to be trying to acquire a southern accent. Maybe he thinks that the northeast and California is so deeply in his corner that he need not try to relate to them through familiar patterns of speech. Perhaps the majority of this country is so stupid that they can't vote for some fast talking black man from up north. Whatever the reason, it infuriates me to hear Obama flatten out his a's. Listen to Obama's lipstick speech as he talks about policAH. He sounds like fucking Cartman.

Here is a good video of Obama speaking clearly and normally with what I would expect would be the normal pattern of speech of a Harvard educated guy. Listen to how he says "policy."

Now here he is talking about policah.

Here is Cartman

Geniuses

noreply@blogger.com (H) — Fri, 05 Sep 2008 14:36:00 +0000

Sometimes I wonder if Republican strategists are just smarter than everybody. They seem to be able to spin every possible story to their advantage. VP's 17 year old daughter pregnant by a guy who doesn't want the child? Rational, free-thinking people might believe that this is a call for an end to abstinence only education. Somehow it has turned into a lesson on family values. An inexperienced VP chosen by a party whose main attack of its opponent has been that he is inexperienced? No problem. She brings fresh experience and family values. John Stewart has a great segment on the double talk.

Recession on the Way

noreply@blogger.com (H) — Fri, 05 Sep 2008 13:27:00 +0000

Back in March, Warren Buffet declared that, "From a common-sense standpoint right now, we're in a recession." When I heard this, I was not quite convinced. Who is this old bastard from Omaha anyway? Then I heard Young Jeezy's song "Put On." Here Jeezy emphatically declares, "recession on the way."

No surprise that there is a Jay-Z remix of this song. Jay-Z has been bearish on the economy since the release of his American Gangster CD. In the video for "Blue Magic," he waved Euros to symbolizing his lack of conviction in the greenback. Further, in "Jockin' Jay-Z," he also alludes to the recession saying, "Fuck talking bout the recession it's depressin." The recession certainly is depressing, but Jay might be more depressed about a Euro trade gone wrong. If he has been long Euros for the past 11 months he has not been doing too well.

Fortunately, Lil' Wayne waded in on the controversy and cleared a lot of things up, saying, "Nah man, it ain't so bad. Shit, I lost some money on pork belly futures, but you know I made bank shorting oil last month. You got to be on the grind every day in this kind of market."

Buffet also mentioned that he puts on for his city (Omaha, Nebraska).

From the Republican National Convention

noreply@blogger.com (H) — Thu, 04 Sep 2008 16:02:00 +0000

Number of mentions of George Bush by

Sarah Palin: 0

Rudy Giuliani: 0

Mike Huckabee: 0

Mitt Romney: 1

Fred Thompson: 0

Joe Lieberman: 0

Michael Phelps is Killing the Environment

noreply@blogger.com (H) — Tue, 02 Sep 2008 17:54:00 +0000

Perhaps it is because I am a born cynic and can't stand to get behind anything that seems wildly popular in America. Or maybe it is because I hate Bob Costas. Whatever the reason, I can't stand the Olympic hype. At the center of it, is Michael Phelps. Who can hate Michael Phelps? I can. He is killing our environment. He is setting a dangerous example to children everywhere that mass the consumption of resources that generate massive amounts of greenhouse gasses in their production is acceptable.

It was reported that Michael Phelps eats 10,000 calories a day, 7,000+ calories more than the average man. In order to produce 7,000 calories worth of beef, 308 pounds of carbon dioxide are emitted. Obviously Phelps isn't eating all beef, but I bet he has a lot of protein and animal products in his diet. Let's say the production of the food he eats above that of a normal person emits an extra 150 (instead of 308) pounds of CO2 per day, or 112,420 pounds per year.

The average American drives 12,000 miles per year. If you do this in a 23mpg Ford Taurus, you burn 520 gallons of gas or 10,400 pounds of CO2. If you enjoy driving a sweet Hummer H2 on 22" inch rims, you will burn 923 gallons of gas and generate 18,462 of C02, just 8,000 more than the guy in the Taurus.

So while many people may point to that asshole in the Hummer, just think that he is only doing 7.1% of the damage to the environment that Michael Phelps is. The next time you are driving around in your Expedition with the Windows open and the AC on and some tree hugger in a Prius gives you a dirty look, remind them that their Olympic hero is doing almost 14 times as much damage as you are.

Some people at my dinner table on Friday night did not agree with me. Their argument was that, who cares, it is only one person. Of course at the margin that one person does not make any difference, but nor does the guy in the H2. I countered by making the even more persuasive argument of storming off in a huff.

Sold a Covered Call on RWR

noreply@blogger.com (H) — Tue, 02 Sep 2008 17:16:00 +0000

Three years ago, I was bearish on REITs and started selling uncovered calls. As you might expect, I did not do so well. I wish I had stuck it out - there would have been a nice payoff.

After an optimistic round of guests on Bloomberg's morning call, the drop in oil today, and the rally we saw last week, I started thinking that everything might not be as bad as it seems. Unleveraged RIETs owning commercial property as opposed to subprime residential will probably do okay, and the hefty dividend (currently around 5%) will probably carry you through. The other thing which I have not heard mentioned as much is that, if inflation is a big concern, REITs holding physical property might not be such a bad play after all.

With this logic I bought 100 shares of RWR at $69.51 and sold the September 71 calls at $1.00. If the stock is trading much lower at expiration, I will probably roll down to the 70 calls.

At least Barron's agrees with me.

Hipsters Can't Help Themselves.

noreply@blogger.com (H) — Wed, 27 Aug 2008 17:55:00 +0000

Even the most benign articles can carry evidence of infuriating hipster-dom; take for example an article in today's New York Times about McCarren Park in Williamsburg. The mention of Williamsburg in the title made me think that there must be some evidence of hipster behavior to arouse and justify my disdain for their culture.

"...Back then, the track was cinder, and when I ran on it..."
nothing yet..

"...With the gentrification of the past two decades came more attention..."
Gentrification, getting warmer..

"...Other local attractions include the pool parties — free concerts held in an emptied community pool featuring indie rock bands..."
Indie rock bands = hipster, but pool parties? = a little warmer...

"...It’s possible to watch simultaneous games of hipster kickball and Hasidic baseball..."
There we go! Kickball! They just couldn't resist!! A sport normally played by 8 - 12 year olds. Of course they would adopt it!

With my anger level towards the artsy people in the city sufficiently elevated, I moved on to the rest of the paper.

Short Some XLF Puts

noreply@blogger.com (H) — Wed, 27 Aug 2008 14:06:00 +0000

A few days ago I went short some September XLF (financial services etf) puts. Though I am losing money on the trade, I like it now more than ever given the selloff on Monday. I am currently short the September 20 and 21 puts with no hedge. Unless they expire worthless, I plan on rolling them out (and possibly down) to October on expiration.

One reason I like trading puts this way is that now, for example, I could buy the 20's back at $0.93 and sell out the October 19's at $0.98. Not much of a credit, but I could lower my strike price by 5% if I wanted to. I plan on waiting until expiration because I will probably be able to do it for more of a credit, or the puts will be expiring worthless. The only risk is that XLF will tank and there will not be any premium in the puts. That is a significant risk, but it is already trading 44% off it's high of $36 from October.

Stop the Press. Daddy Yankee Endorses John Mccain

noreply@blogger.com (H) — Tue, 26 Aug 2008 13:48:00 +0000

Like any good republican, McCain will take votes wherever he can get them. Unfortunately, Daddy Yankee has no vote because Puerto Rico is a territory and not a state. Daddy Yankee points out, "he has been a fighter for the Hispanic community, and I know that for me personally, I chose him as the best candidate because he has been a fighter for the immigration issue." Oh how McCain has fought for the immigration issue.

The most awkward moment however was when McCain spoke. “I know why you are sitting here,” McCain said in his speech, according to a press release from his campaign, “and that is not to listen to me so much, but I brought a special friend along with me today, a great American success story. As you know, he’s from Puerto Rico. He’s been married for 15 years. He has children aged 14, 12 and 10. One of his most famous songs, I know you’re very familiar with, ‘Gasolina.’ Well, here he is, Daddy Yankee.”

Would somebody please tell John McCain what that song is about? Hint: it is not about energy policy.

Homeless

noreply@blogger.com (H) — Mon, 25 Aug 2008 15:23:00 +0000

There are few things more elitist and white than basing your understanding of the homeless off of an NPR program. The other day NPR had a fascinating piece on homeless people in New York as told by a formerly homeless alcoholic. The thesis was that homeless people were not homeless because of a lack of available jobs in the city, but mostly because they battled some sort of addiction or psychological disorder. 'The system' had not failed them in the way that people might suspect but had failed them nonetheless. The narrator went on to point out that food, clothing, and, to some degree, decent shelter were available for anyone who was homeless in New York. The narrator expanded on this point and said that anybody asking for money for food was being disingenuous (as many have long suspected); churches, shelters, soup kitchens etc. provide meals for anybody that walks through their doors.

I decided to put this idea of a homeless man not actually wanting food to the test in the Lower East Side a few nights ago. As I walked out of a pizza place with a fresh slice in hand, a homeless man approached me.

Homeless Man: Sir, sir, could you please help me, I am hungry and I am trying to get some money to buy some food.

Me: Here, if you are hungry, take this slice of pizza.

HM: No, that's OK.

Me: No, if you are hungry, take this slice of pizza.

HM: No that's for you. I just need some money to buy my own food.

Me: That's what I am saying, this can be your own food. Take this slice, and I'll get another.

HM: Fuck you.

Women's Bathroom

noreply@blogger.com (H) — Wed, 20 Aug 2008 17:40:00 +0000

While on the subject of bathrooms:

I was recently promoted to the role of fire warden for my office. It is a prestigious position, and serving under me I have a deputy fire warden, a bathroom searcher for the men's room, and a bathroom searcher for the women's room. There are four men and one women in the office.

We will also be having a fire drill next Tuesday. I wonder how the bathroom searchers will react when I tell them to perform their repective duties. No pun intended.